4th week of NFL season is upon us and FOX Sports Research is here to continue to give you the edge you need to turn a profit this week.
We’ve dug into the data and re-analyzed common patterns, as well as other trends specific to coaches and players, to tell you who to bet on this week.
Let’s have fun!
Big 4th week featured covers
We usually like to take underdogs in games with big spreads, but our data has historically shown the opposite for Week 4 games. The Green Bay Packers are 9.5 point favorites at FOX Bet in the match with New England Patriots. The Packers are such a heavy favorite, likely due to playing at Lambeau Field and the Patriots as the starting quarterback Mc Jones being injured.
Moreover, 9-plus point favorites are 26-21-1 ATS (55.3%) and 38-10 SU (79.2%) in Week 4 since 2000. Looking specifically at Green- Bay, they are 3-2 ATS (60%) and 5-0 SU as 9-12 point favorites under Matt Lafleur. Aaron Rodgers is also 23-21 ATS (52.3%) and 38-6 SU (86.4%) when he is a career regular season game favorite with 9 points.
The underdogs on the roads were recently reviewed in Week 4
This was interesting because it only covers the last decade of the Week 4 game. If you go back further, the percentages even out and don’t stick out as much. However, going back to 2010, road underdogs are 63-46-1 ATS (57.8%) and 42-68 SU (38.2%) in the 4th week. Since 2015, coverage and win rates have jumped slightly to 58.8% and 42%, respectively, while road underdogs have gone 40-28-1 ATS and 29-40 SU. And if you go back to just the last three seasons (since 2019), both marks jump significantly to 19-11 ATS (63.3%) and 16-14 SU (53.3%). There are eight teams that qualify this week, according to FOX Bet odds.
Patriots (+10) at Packers
Rams (+2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Kliff Kingsbury is the dominant underdog on the road
We mentioned this trend earlier in the season and it would be remiss not to bring it up again as the Cardinals are 1.5 point underdogs on the road against the Panthers at FOX Bet.
Since taking over as Arizona head coach, Kliff Kingsbury is a whopping 14-4-1 ATS (77.8%) and 12-7 SU (63.2%) as a road underdog. He has gone 7-0 ATS and 7-0 SU in those situations over the past two seasons.
Sean McVay and the Rams will cover
This was an especially tough call considering the Rams are 4-10 ATS and SU (40%) against the 49ers since 2015. Broncos.
Here are some nuggets on why the Rams are tipped against the 49ers:
- Rams under Sean McVay:
19-12 ATS (61.3%) and 20-11 SU (64.5%) vs. NFC West teams 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and SU on the road vs. NFC West teams 4-2-1 ATS ( 66.7%) and 5 -2 SU (71.4%) in Monday games
- 19-12 ATS (61.3%) and 20-11 SU (64.5%) against NFC West teams
- 11-5 ATS (68.8%) and SU on the road against NFC West teams
- 4-2-1 ATS (66.7%) and 5-2 SU (71.4%) in Monday games
FOX Bet currently has Los Angeles as a 1.5-point road underdog in Monday night’s matchup.
0-3 teams cover in Week 4 (Raiders)
Just as trends predicted last week’s 0-2 teams would be the Bengals, Falcons, Titans and Panthers — the same can be said for 0-3 teams. Going back to 2015, 0-3 teams are 21-11 ATS (65.5%) and 15-17 (46.9%) SU in Week 4 games. If you go back even further to 2010, the coverage rate is still is 60.4%, with teams going 32-21 ATS over that span.
The Raiders are the only team at 0-3, and they are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Broncos at FOX Bet.
Look for Brown to win and cover against the Falcons
This line is suspiciously low as FOX Bet has Cleveland Browns as 1.5-point favorites on the road against the 1-2 Falcons. This is probably due to the fact that Miles Garrettstatus is questionable after survive a car accident at the beginning of the week. Still, all the evidence points to Brown covering.
Here’s what we found during the match:
- Browns are 12-3 ATS (80%) and SU vs. Falcons since 1966
- The Browns are 8-3-2 ATS (72.7%) and 8-5 SU (61.5%) against NFC South opponents since 2010, with the underdog in eight of those games (61.5%)
- The Browns are 7-3-1 ATS (70%) and 5-6 SU (45.5%) on the road against NFC South opponents since 2000, with the underdog in eight of those games (72.7%)
- The Falcons are 1-4 ATS (20%) and 0-5 SU as a home underdog under Arthur Smith (since last season)
The Cowboys must win and cover
We said the Cowboys would win last week as underdogs, and we’d like them to win again as favorites this week vs. Commanders of Washington. FOX Bet has 3 of them–points home favourites, with the line moving from 2.5 earlier this week.
Since 2018, Dallas is 18-7 ATS (72%) and 19-6 SU (76%) against NFC East opponents, with 15 of those games (60%) going overtime. Over that same span, the Cowboys are 10-2 ATS (83.3%) and 11-1 SU (91.7%) when playing at home against division opponents. The over has also hit 10 of those games, a rate of 83.3%.
So, are you ready to bet on the NFL? Go to Bet FOX now for all your bets!