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Why is the conflict in eastern Ukraine and how does Putin end?

A Ukrainian serviceman with a tattoo of the coat of arms of Ukraine stands on the front line with separatists supported by Russia, near Donetsk, April 22, 2021.

ANATOLIY STEPANOV AFP | Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin again occupies a central place after the introduction of troops in the two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and their recognition as independent states.

Western officials and analysts scoffed at Putin’s statement that Russian troops sent to the region would act as “peacekeepers”, saying the latest move could be a precursor to a wider invasion of Ukraine.

Political analysts have predicted that Russia could take such a step for a while, and the conflict in the Donbas between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian military is not new.

CNBC has a guide to what is happening in eastern Ukraine and why it is important:

Why in eastern Ukraine?

Although there are heightened fears of a potential military conflict in eastern Ukraine, the area has for some time actually been the site of a proxy war between Ukraine and Russia.

Shortly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014pro-Russian separatists proclaimed two republics in the eastern part of the country: the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic to the great horror of the Ukrainian government.

Since then, clashes and fighting between Ukrainian troops and separatists have continued in the region known as Donbass.

Germany and France tried to mediate in the peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine, known as the “Minsk Agreements”. And although fighting in the Donbas was interrupted by periods of ceasefire, Ukraine and Russia accused each other of violating the terms of the agreements, and fighting resumed.

The armed conflict in the Donbas, often referred to as the “war”, already had a high human cost: between 13,000 and 14,000 people were killed. An accurate estimate of the death toll is difficult to achieve, given the nature of the conflict, which is similar to a civil war.

On Tuesday, Putin told reporters that “Minsk agreements are dead long before yesterday [Monday’s] recognition of the people’s republics “and again blamed their failure Kiev.

What is Russia doing?

Russia has often denied supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, but has been accused of supplying military equipment to insurgents in an attempt to undermine Ukraine’s government, sovereignty and political stability.

After the invasion and annexation of Crimea, which led to international sanctions against Russia, Western officials feared that Putin’s ultimate goal was to invade parts of the country and establish a pro-Russian regime in Kiev.

Russia has repeatedly denied plans to invade, but the recent rally of more than 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine and more troops stationed in its ally Belarus for military exercises has only heightened concerns that a full-scale Russian invasion is imminent.

Russia’s recognition of self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine on Monday gives an official stamp of Moscow’s support for the insurgents there, but it has already tried to “Russify” region, offering residents there Russian passports and citizenship.

Political analysts saw the move in 2019 as a cynical precursor to the invasion, because if Russia decided to invade, it could say it was doing so only to “protect” its citizens from Ukraine. Russian state media have already focused on Donbass residents fleeing the region in recent days, claiming it was due to shelling by the Ukrainian military.

Civilians are arriving in the Rostov region in southern Russia after Russia’s decision to recognize the Donetsk region as an independent state.

Anadolu Agency Anadolu Agency Getty Images

Signaling that Russia adheres to such a strategy, Putin justified the order to send troops to eastern Ukraine on Tuesday by saying that Moscow’s recognition of the “republics” was dictated by the fact that the Ukrainian leadership has publicly stated that it does not intend to comply with these [Minsk] agreements. “

– What else to expect? he said. Moreover, when asked whether Russia has recognized only the borders of the self-proclaimed republics, or outside and including the larger Donetsk and Luhansk regions in which they are located, Putin signaled that this was the last:

“As for the borders within which we will recognize these republics, we have recognized them, which means we have recognized their founding documents, including the Constitution, and the Constitution defines their borders in Donetsk and Luhansk regions at the time they were part. Of Ukraine “.

What does Putin want?

In fact, the battle for Ukraine is a battle for influence and power. The Ukrainian government, now led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has turned to the West in recent years, seeking to join the EU and NATO and move away from Russia’s post-Soviet orbit.

Meanwhile, Putin condemned the collapse of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe, and during his 22-year rule in Russia he sought to restore Russia’s power base and sphere of influence over former Soviet states such as Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine – something like a pearl in the USSR state against Europe.

Putin often praised the historical unity of Russia and Ukraine and did so again on Monday when he ordered the deployment of troops to the Donbass.

Ukraine’s drift toward the West is exacerbating Moscow because it does not want NATO or the EU to expand eastward to include Ukraine, despite the fact that there is no near prospect of becoming a member of Ukraine.

You mean, like, saltines and their ilk, eh?

Attentive observers of Putin believe that Russia expected more sanctions this week and that Moscow means a bigger plan when it comes to Ukraine.

“Putin is being sanctioned for acknowledging that we all knew he had troops in the DPR and LPR and de facto controlled them,” said Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, in a research note. developing. Tuesday.

“I do not understand what Putin gets from the recognition of the People’s Republic of Belarus and the Democratic People’s Republic. It bears the cost of supporting 3.5 million low-income people. He is feeling the impact of sanctions. He is leaving Minsk-2, so he abandons his plan to create a federal solution for Ukraine as a means to stop its measures. And internationally, he is seen as a bad guy who steals territory from other countries. “

“In fact, it only makes sense if it’s the beginning of something bigger, and it’s just an attempt to provoke Ukrainians and the West to some illogical counter-reaction, and what I think is really happening here is that he’s building a case for everything war with Ukraine with the Russian population, ”Ash said.

Mario Bikarski, an analyst on Russia with the Economist Intelligence Unit, commented that Russia’s recent actions were “designed to put maximum pressure on Ukraine, draw Western attention, open the door to negotiations and try to reach a settlement that prevents Ukraine from joining NATO.” . “

He noted that Moscow can still wait to see if there is room for compromise with the military alliance.

“Recognizing the independence of the DPR and LPR, Russia has shown the West that it is serious about preventing Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO, which Russia sees as an existential threat,” he said in an e-mail on Tuesday.

“Russia’s latest steps have been copied from a previous textbook on Crimea and follow a familiar pattern from other conflicts, including in Georgia. The key question is whether Russia will stop here, and whether it has reached the crisis or whether it may worsen further. “

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Why is the conflict in eastern Ukraine and how does Putin end?

A Ukrainian serviceman with a tattoo of the coat of arms of Ukraine stands on the front line with separatists supported by Russia, near Donetsk, April 22, 2021.

ANATOLIY STEPANOV AFP | Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin again occupies a central place after the introduction of troops in the two pro-Russian breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine and their recognition as independent states.

Western officials and analysts scoffed at Putin’s statement that Russian troops sent to the region would act as “peacekeepers”, saying the latest move could be a precursor to a wider invasion of Ukraine.

Political analysts have predicted that Russia could take such a step for a while, and the conflict in the Donbas between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian military is not new.

CNBC has a guide to what is happening in eastern Ukraine and why it is important:

Why in eastern Ukraine?

Although there are heightened fears of a potential military conflict in eastern Ukraine, the area has for some time actually been the site of a proxy war between Ukraine and Russia.

Shortly after Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014pro-Russian separatists proclaimed two republics in the eastern part of the country: the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic to the great horror of the Ukrainian government.

Since then, clashes and fighting between Ukrainian troops and separatists have continued in the region known as Donbass.

Germany and France tried to mediate in the peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine, known as the “Minsk Agreements”. And although fighting in the Donbas was interrupted by periods of ceasefire, Ukraine and Russia accused each other of violating the terms of the agreements, and fighting resumed.

The armed conflict in the Donbas, often referred to as the “war”, already had a high human cost: between 13,000 and 14,000 people were killed. An accurate estimate of the death toll is difficult to achieve, given the nature of the conflict, which is similar to a civil war.

On Tuesday, Putin told reporters that “Minsk agreements are dead long before yesterday [Monday’s] recognition of the people’s republics “and again blamed their failure Kiev.

What is Russia doing?

Russia has often denied supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine, but has been accused of supplying military equipment to insurgents in an attempt to undermine Ukraine’s government, sovereignty and political stability.

After the invasion and annexation of Crimea, which led to international sanctions against Russia, Western officials feared that Putin’s ultimate goal was to invade parts of the country and establish a pro-Russian regime in Kiev.

Russia has repeatedly denied plans to invade, but the recent rally of more than 100,000 troops along the border with Ukraine and more troops stationed in its ally Belarus for military exercises has only heightened concerns that a full-scale Russian invasion is imminent.

Russia’s recognition of self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine on Monday gives an official stamp of Moscow’s support for the insurgents there, but it has already tried to “Russify” region, offering residents there Russian passports and citizenship.

Political analysts saw the move in 2019 as a cynical precursor to the invasion, because if Russia decided to invade, it could say it was doing so only to “protect” its citizens from Ukraine. Russian state media have already focused on Donbass residents fleeing the region in recent days, claiming it was due to shelling by the Ukrainian military.

Civilians are arriving in the Rostov region in southern Russia after Russia’s decision to recognize the Donetsk region as an independent state.

Anadolu Agency Anadolu Agency Getty Images

Signaling that Russia adheres to such a strategy, Putin justified the order to send troops to eastern Ukraine on Tuesday by saying that Moscow’s recognition of the “republics” was dictated by the fact that the Ukrainian leadership has publicly stated that it does not intend to comply with these [Minsk] agreements. “

– What else to expect? he said. Moreover, when asked whether Russia has recognized only the borders of the self-proclaimed republics, or outside and including the larger Donetsk and Luhansk regions in which they are located, Putin signaled that this was the last:

“As for the borders within which we will recognize these republics, we have recognized them, which means we have recognized their founding documents, including the Constitution, and the Constitution defines their borders in Donetsk and Luhansk regions at the time they were part. Of Ukraine “.

What does Putin want?

In fact, the battle for Ukraine is a battle for influence and power. The Ukrainian government, now led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has turned to the West in recent years, seeking to join the EU and NATO and move away from Russia’s post-Soviet orbit.

Meanwhile, Putin condemned the collapse of the Soviet Union as a catastrophe, and during his 22-year rule in Russia he sought to restore Russia’s power base and sphere of influence over former Soviet states such as Belarus, Georgia and Ukraine – something like a pearl in the USSR state against Europe.

Putin often praised the historical unity of Russia and Ukraine and did so again on Monday when he ordered the deployment of troops to the Donbass.

Ukraine’s drift toward the West is exacerbating Moscow because it does not want NATO or the EU to expand eastward to include Ukraine, despite the fact that there is no near prospect of becoming a member of Ukraine.

You mean, like, saltines and their ilk, eh?

Attentive observers of Putin believe that Russia expected more sanctions this week and that Moscow means a bigger plan when it comes to Ukraine.

“Putin is being sanctioned for acknowledging that we all knew he had troops in the DPR and LPR and de facto controlled them,” said Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, in a research note. developing. Tuesday.

“I do not understand what Putin gets from the recognition of the People’s Republic of Belarus and the Democratic People’s Republic. It bears the cost of supporting 3.5 million low-income people. He is feeling the impact of sanctions. He is leaving Minsk-2, so he abandons his plan to create a federal solution for Ukraine as a means to stop its measures. And internationally, he is seen as a bad guy who steals territory from other countries. “

“In fact, it only makes sense if it’s the beginning of something bigger, and it’s just an attempt to provoke Ukrainians and the West to some illogical counter-reaction, and what I think is really happening here is that he’s building a case for everything war with Ukraine with the Russian population, ”Ash said.

Mario Bikarski, an analyst on Russia with the Economist Intelligence Unit, commented that Russia’s recent actions were “designed to put maximum pressure on Ukraine, draw Western attention, open the door to negotiations and try to reach a settlement that prevents Ukraine from joining NATO.” . “

He noted that Moscow can still wait to see if there is room for compromise with the military alliance.

“Recognizing the independence of the DPR and LPR, Russia has shown the West that it is serious about preventing Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO, which Russia sees as an existential threat,” he said in an e-mail on Tuesday.

“Russia’s latest steps have been copied from a previous textbook on Crimea and follow a familiar pattern from other conflicts, including in Georgia. The key question is whether Russia will stop here, and whether it has reached the crisis or whether it may worsen further. “

Reported by Source link

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Most Popular