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.jpg "Buffalo Bills defensive end Ed Oliver tackles Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff in the end zone for a safety in the third quarter on Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field.")
Buffalo Bills defensive end Ed Oliver tackles Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff in the end zone for a safety in the third quarter on Thanksgiving Day at Ford Field.
USA TODAY Sports
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The AFC East rivals face off in a massive Thursday night clash for both sides as Mack Jones and the New England Patriots host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Allen and the Bills (8-3) are tied for the division lead with the Dolphins, while the Patriots (6-5) are fighting for a place in the AFC playoff race with six games to go. If the postseason started today, they would be eliminated.
Buffalo has won four of five meetings since Tom Brady left New England, including a 47-17 rout last year in the playoffs. The away team has a rating of -4.5 in online betting conferences and the Over/Under value is 43.5 points.
Bookies.com NFL handicapper Adam Thompson, who has made 63% of the NFL’s best bets over the past six weeks, reveals his play for the crucial AFC matchup.
Picking the Bills vs. Patriots point spread
The accounts of this second half of the season have not been as dominant as the one that began in 2022 with a heyday of dominant wins. They’ve closed the spread just once in their last four games. But they handled the Pats, going 3-0-1 ATS in New England.
However, for us now it’s about the matches. The Patriots don’t really have them. The run offense could be a problem against Buffalo’s seventh-ranked D. The Bills are looking for a bit of a breakout, but we think the defense will lead the way. Take the Bills to cover, although it’s not our main game for Thursday.
Bills vs. Patriots over/under
The Bills’ games have been high-scoring and the offense has not lived up to expectations. The Unders have played in Buffalo’s last six road games and the last four on Thursday Night Football. We know New England is also a defense-first team.
The 43.5 points total is by far the lowest this season for a Bills game. In fact, that’s the highest mark for a Patriots game since Week 5. With New England’s defense, especially in the red zone, and Buffalo’s own issues near the goal line, take less for betting programs.
Bills vs. Patriots Moneyline Pick
Buffalo is -215 on the money line, meaning it would take a bet of $215 on the bill to win and make a $100 profit. That sounds better than the +185 price for the New England underdog, even in Foxboro.
The Pats have struggled against teams over .500 this season. In fact, they are 0-3 since their Thanksgiving loss to the Vikings. Expect the Bills to run away with a win here.
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